RBI Slashes GDP Growth Projection Again, Goes From 7.8 To 7.2 Percent!

by GoNews Desk 7 months ago Views 30450

RBI GDP Growth Forecast 7.2% MPC Meeting
During today’s press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das once again lowered the projected growth rate for the financial year 2022-23 from 7.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent. Quarter wise, it is projected at 16.2% in Q1, 6.2% in Q2, 4.1% in Q3, and 4% in Q4.

On February 10th, the RBI governor had said that in the first quarter of the financial year 2022-23, growth would be 7.2 percent, 7.0 percent in the second quarter, 4.3 percent in the third quarter and 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter.


This is the third such reduction of the GDP growth projection within this financial year. The NSO’s Economic Survey had estimated a 9.2% growth in FY 2021-22, as per the advance estimates released in January this year, and was pegged at 8.5% for the following fiscal year beginning in April. Then, the RBI governor put it at 7.8%, and now it has again been slashed to 7.2%.

This is in line with multiple agencies cutting back India’s GDP growth forecast. Moody’s slashed India’s projected growth for the FY 2022 in its report Global Macro Outlook 2022-23 (March 2022 update) from 9.5 percent to 9.1 percent.

On March 22nd, 2022, Fitch also cut back India’s projected growth for the fiscal year 2022-23 to 8.5 percent from 10.3 percent, citing rising energy prices and inflation. The growth for next year (FY 2024) was projected at 7 percent. In the same week, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) cut back India’s growth projection from 6.7% to 4.6%.

The Russia-Ukraine war and the resultant economic blowback in the form of disrupted supply chains, higher crude oil and food prices (inflation), effects of international sanctions is a major factor in the cutbacks by Moody and the UNCTAD.

 

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